An In-Depth Look at Region I: Population

According to the the authors of Soccernomics, a region's population, wealth, and soccer-playing experience are the three most important criteria to consider when judging the state of soccer in that region.

Today, I've posted the population figures for each state that makes up Region I, which is the U.S. Youth Soccer Association (USYSA) region Maine's soccer teams belong to.

According to the statistical analysis of the authors of Soccernomics, journalist Simon Kuper and economist Stefan Szymanski, a country whose population is twice that of its opponent has a 1/10 goal advantage over its opponent. Or, to put it another way, a country whose population is twice that of its opponent would have a one goal headstart in one every ten games against that opponent. Presumably, that advantage would increase if the states' population ratio is greater than 2:1.

Now, I'm not entirely sure if such an advantage should be discounted or magnified on the state level here in the United States (the authors' research focused on the results of international matches played between 1980 and 2001), but it is nevertheless interesting to say how Maine matches up against the states in its immediate competitive sphere.

(Editor's Note: Click on the chart below to enlarge it.)



The median population of the thirteen Region I states is 3.5 million. To put that number into some remarkable context, there are two countries who qualified for the 2010 FIFA World Cup whose population is either equal to or less than Region I's median: Uruguay (3.5 million), Slovenia (2 million). Think about that for a minute: Two countries with populations no greater than three times the size of Maine has produced enough international-caliber players to field a World Cup team. That's sobering.

Anyway, next month I'll post the wealth of the respective Region I states, as defined by each state's gross state product (GSP) and its GSP Per Capita.

- John C.L. Morgan

Related: Bite-Sized Review: The Freaky Side of Soccer (February 26, 2010)

* Population figures for each state's overall population and the numbers of 10-19 year-olds who are living in each state are based on the U.S. Census Bureau's 2006-2008 data. And the USYSA registration numbers are taken from their statistics for the 2008-2009 season. Of course, each state's percentage of membership in the USYSA was calculated by dividing the number of players that state has registered with the USYSA and dividing that number by the number of 10-19 year-olds who live in that state.